Today, Ming-Chi Kuo released his latest research report. He believes that among the four iPhone 12 models, iPhone 12 will hold the largest share, possibly accounting for 40%-45%.
According to reports, the iPhone 12 mini (5.4-inch), iPhone 12, iPhone 12 Pro (6.1-inch with three cameras), and iPhone 12 Pro Max (6.7-inch) account for 20-25%, 40-45%, 15-20%, and 15-20% of total sales, respectively. Although the iPhone 12 mini is relatively affordable, it cannot meet users’ general demand for a larger screen. While the iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max have higher specifications, they are also more expensive. Therefore, the iPhone 12 is considered the model with the highest shipment share in the iPhone 12 series.
Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that the key to the iPhone 12 series’ shipment volume lies in its pricing. In the first three quarters of 2020, the iPhone 11 accounted for about 70-75% of total iPhone 11 series shipments, indicating that pricing was the key factor for its success. Although 5G is the main hardware upgrade for the iPhone 12 series, since 5G services are not yet widespread, price remains the most critical factor affecting the demand for the iPhone 12 series. Among the iPhone 12 series, the iPhone 12 has the highest shipment share, so its pricing will be the most important point of observation.
Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that the shipment forecast for iPhone 12 series components in the fourth quarter of 2020 does not reflect actual demand. Component shipments for the iPhone 12 series in the fourth quarter of 2020 are expected to be 80-85 million units, higher than the 75 million units for the iPhone 11 series in the fourth quarter of 2019. However, due to a shorter sales period, we believe demand for the iPhone 12 series in the fourth quarter of 2020 should be lower than for the iPhone 11 series in the fourth quarter of 2019. Therefore, we believe that the forecast for iPhone 12 series component shipments in the fourth quarter of 2020 does not reflect the actual demand.
In addition, Kuo also stated that if the iPhone 12 is priced lower than the iPhone 11 ($699), the stock prices of its supply chain will continue to rise after the new product launch. However, since the iPhone 12 will not begin shipping until mid-Q4 2020, initial supply shortages may result in missing some demand in the European and American markets.