Ming-Chi Kuo released a report today stating that his latest research indicates that the demand for iPhone, iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac in the fourth quarter of 2020, as well as the outlook for 2021, is better than expected.
Demand for the new iPad Air has exceeded expectations. Looking ahead to 2021, we expect iPad growth to be driven by the adoption of new technologies (such as mini LED and 5G support) and the launch of a new lower-priced iPad in the second half of 2021.
The above conclusions are mainly based on the following 4 points:
1. Demand for iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max is better than expected, offsetting the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 12 and 12 mini, so overall iPhone shipments were better than expected. We are positive about the shipment momentum of the iPhone 12 series in the first half of 2021 and the replacement demand for the new iPhones in the second half of 2021.
2. Demand for the new iPad Air has exceeded expectations. Looking ahead to 2021, we predict iPad growth will be driven by the adoption of new technologies (such as mini LED and 5G support) and the release of a new low-cost iPad in the second half of 2021.
3. Demand for the new Apple Watch 6 and Watch SE is better than expected. We predict that with innovative health management features and upgraded designs, the new Apple Watch will continue to see strong shipment momentum in 2021.
4. Demand for MacBook models equipped with Apple M1 is better than expected. We are positive about the new MacBook models with Apple Silicon, and we expect the MacBook with a new design to be released in the second half of 2021.
The report also pointed out that AirPods shipments fell short of expectations, with shipments in the first half of 2021 expected to remain flat or decline by 5-10%, below the market’s estimated 20% year-on-year growth rate. There are three reasons why AirPods shipments in the first half of the year were below expectations:
1. Due to tight component supply, iPhones are given priority over AirPods in component allocation.
2. Due to the iPhone discontinuing free wired earphones, market demand for AirPods has been overly optimistic.
3. The shipping time for AirPods 3 may be delayed until the end of the second quarter of 2021, so the demand for an upgrade will become more apparent in the second half of 2021.