Today, Ming-Chi Kuo released a research report stating that the iPhone will adopt a periscope telephoto lens in 2023.
Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that smartphones will widely adopt 8P lenses from the second half of 2022 to the first half of 2023, and the iPhone is expected to use periscope telephoto lenses in 2023. Although the optical performance of 8P lenses is about 10-20% higher than that of 7P lenses, few smartphones currently use this technology due to its high cost. We predict that once the yield of 8P lenses increases to 70%-80% in the second half of 2022, demand will grow significantly. With its significant technological advantages, Largan Precision is expected to become the main supplier of periscope telephoto lenses for new iPhones in the second half of 2023.
Ming-Chi Kuo previously stated that he expected Apple to use a periscope lens in the 2022 iPhone models, but it now seems that he believes this will not happen until 2023.
In the report, Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that the front camera module size should be further reduced. We predict that the new iPhone will adopt an all-in-one lens design as early as the second half of 2022. This design requires the lens and VCM (Voice Coil Motor) to be assembled and shipped to the CCM since Largan will start selling iPhone VCM for the new iPhone in the second half of 2021.
Ming-Chi Kuo predicts that the rear camera upgrade of the new iPhone in the second half of 2022 will focus on the telephoto lens. Telephoto lenses have a higher ASP than other high-end lenses due to the difficulty of design and production. Currently, Largan Precision’s telephoto lens orders account for about 90%. With significant yield advantages, Largan Precision’s market share in the iPhone 5P ultra-wide-angle lens market will increase from 50% in 2021 to 70-80%.
Ming-Chi Kuo stated that the ultra-wide-angle lenses for two high-end iPhone models in the second half of 2021 will be upgraded from 5P to 6P. Largan Precision will maintain a 70%-80% share of orders by leveraging its design and manufacturing strengths.
He also shared details of the iPhone in 2021 and 2022. For the 2021 iPhone, Apple will use a new Face ID transmitter made of plastic instead of glass, thanks to improved coating technology. This change means that plastic lenses are used more widely.
Kuo said: “In the past, the market generally believed that the reason why glass must be used for Tx lens materials was to avoid deformation due to heat generated during VCSEL operation. However, our latest survey points out that benefiting from improved coating technology, the new 2H21 iPhone’s Face ID TX lens material will abandon glass and use plastic instead. Tx plastic lens suppliers are Largan and Genius. Largan is the main beneficiary of this material change trend due to its high supply proportion. We predict that ams (lens assembly) and its suppliers Lante Optics (lens production) and SCHOTT Optics (materials) will lose orders for Face ID Tx lenses.”