Today, Ming-Chi Kuo released his latest report, revealing Apple’s MR/AR product roadmap and predicting that MR/AR technology will become a mainstream trend in the tech industry over the next decade.
The report predicts that mixed reality (MR)/augmented reality (AR) technology will be a key next-generation technology defining human-computer interaction interfaces in electronic products, which is also why Apple is heavily investing in the MR/AR field. From a shipment perspective, the report expects MR/AR technology to be mainstream in the future, while virtual reality (VR) devices will mainly target niche markets.
The report predicts that Apple’s MR/AR product blueprint is divided into three stages, namely Helmet-type products in 2022, Glasses-type products in 2025, and Contact lens-type products in 2030-2040. It is expected that helmet-type products can provide AR and VR experiences, while glasses-type products and contact lens-type products are more likely to focus on AR services.
Based on the latest industry research and insights, Ming-Chi Kuo made the following predictions about the above-mentioned devices in his report:
Helmet-type products:
1. The helmet-type product (Mixed Reality Headset) is expected to be launched in the middle of 2022.
2. Currently, several prototype models weigh between 200 and 300 grams. If Apple can successfully overcome key technical challenges, the final product’s weight will be reduced to 100-200 grams, making it significantly lighter than all existing VR products.
3. This product will provide a video-see-through AR experience through the Micro-OLED display and several optical modules provided by Sony. It can also offer a VR experience.
4. The design complexity of this product is higher than that of the iPhone, which means its price may be similar to the high-end iPhone (we estimate about $1,000).
5. Have independent computing power and storage space.
6. The first-generation helmet products were positioned more as portable products rather than mobile products. With technological advancements, the report suggests that helmet products can also enhance mobility.
7. The report believes that the key to the success of the first-generation elmet products is to provide a very smooth display and operation experience for MR/AR applications.
8. Although Apple has always focused on AR, in terms of hardware specifications, the report believes that the immersive experience provided by this product is expected to surpass existing VR products significantly. The report believes that Apple may highly integrate the helmet product and image-related applications (such as Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, etc.) as a key selling point.
Glasses type products:
1. The product is expected to launch as early as 2025. The report indicates that no prototype currently exists.
2. It is possible that the technology developed by Apple, similar to the Waveguide, will be used to provide an optical see-through AR experience.
3. May have independent computing power and storage space.
4. The positioning of glasses-style products is the mobile product.
5. The report believes that the positioning of glasses-type products and helmet-type products is not the same, so in the future, the two product lines may move in parallel at the same time. Helmet-type products can provide an excellent immersive experience, while glasses-type products are more focused on providing a “mobile + AR” experience.
6. The report looks forward to integrating glasses-style products with Apple Car and providing an innovative user experience.
Contact lens type products:
1. The launch schedule is undetermined. The report predicts that this will be a product after 2030.
2. This product will bring electronic products from the visible computing era to the invisible computing era.
3. Regarding current technical visibility, this product is unlikely to have independent computing power and storage space.