Today, Ming-Chi Kuo released his latest report, revealing predictions for the iPhone product line and key specifications from 2021 to 2023.
2021:
1. Apple will not release a new iPhone SE model in the first half of 2021.
2. The new iPhones released in the second half of 2021 are the same as the iPhone 12. There are four models with the same screen size, and all models support the Lightning port. The main hardware adjustments include a smaller notch area and upgrading the Qualcomm 5G modem to the X60M. The two high-end iPhones of the second half of 2021 feature more specification upgrades, including an upgraded rear ultra-wide lens from 5P (f/2.4) / fixed focus (FF) to 6P (f/1.8) / auto-focus (AF), and a display that uses more power-efficient LTPO technology and supports a 120Hz refresh rate.
3. All new iPhone models released in the second half of 2021 feature Y-OCTA technology (available only on the iPhone 12 Pro models) and an ultra-wide lens (available only on the iPhone 12 Pro Max).
4. Thanks to the space-saving design of many components, the new iPhone models released in the second half of 2021 have larger battery capacities than the iPhone 12 series, so the new iPhones are also slightly heavier than the iPhone 12. he space-saving designs include integrating the SIM card tray with the main logic board and reducing the thickness of the front optical module.
5. Among the new iPhone models released in the second half of 2021, only the two high-end models have a rear LiDAR.
6. The report believes that the growth momentum of the iPhone in 2021 will mainly come from the increased demand for replacement of 5G devices, the increase in high-end market share due to Huawei’s ban on high-end market, and the price cut of the iPhone 11. The report predicts that iPhone shipments in 2021 will increase by 15-20% year on year to approximately 230 million units.
2022:
1. Apple will release a new iPhone SE model in the first half of 2022. Its appearance and most specifications are similar to the current 4.7-inch iPhone SE, with the most significant changes being support for 5G networks and a processor upgrade.
2. Among the new iPhone models released in the second half of 2022, at least the high-end models will abandon the notch design and adopt a punch-hole screen. If the production yield is sufficiently high, it is also possible that all models have a punch-hole display.
3. The front camera of the iPhone released in the second half of 2022 supports autofocus (AF).
4. The report believes that the growth momentum of the iPhone in 2022 will mainly come from the demand for 5G replacement driven by the new high-end models and the new low-end iPhone SE.
2023:
1. If the iPhone 11 is discontinued in 2022, Apple will launch a new model in the first half of 2023 featuring an approximately 6-inch LCD screen, Face ID support, and a price below $600. Compared to the iPhone 11, the most significant changes in this new model will be 5G network support and a processor upgrade.
2. If Apple’s research and development go smoothly, the new high-end iPhone launched in the second half of 2023 will feature an under-screen fingerprint sensor, a periscope telephoto lens, and a true full-screen design without a punch hole or notch.
3. Apple has not yet officially launched a foldable phone project using a flexible OLED screen. The report predicts that if Apple can overcome the core technology and mass production challenges of foldable phones in 2021, it may release a 7.5-inch foldable iPhone in 2023.
The report pointed out that the market expects the iPhone to abandon the Lightning port and switch to USB-C, and to support a Touch ID button with power functionality. However, the report also noted that the timeline for the current iPhone to adopt these two new specifications is still unclear.