Today, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released the latest report, bringing the iPhone product line and key specifications forecast for 2021-2023.
2021:
1. Apple will not release new iPhone SE models in 1H21.
2. The new 2H21 iPhone is the same as the iPhone 12. There are 4 models with the same screen size, all supporting the Lightning port. The main hardware specifications are changed to notch reduction and Qualcomm’s 5G baseband chip upgrade to 5nm manufactured X60M. Two 2H21 high-end iPhones have more specifications upgrades, including the rear ultra-wide camera upgrade from 5P (f/2.4) / fixed focal length (FF) to 6P (f/1.8) / autofocus (AF), and the screen use more power-saving LTPO technology and supports 120Hz.
3. The new 2H21 iPhone models all use Y-OCTA (iPhone 12 series is only used by Pro series) and Sensor shift ultra-wide camera (iPhone 12 series is only used by 12 Pro Max).
4. Thanks to the space-saving design of many components, the new 2H21 iPhone model is equipped with a larger capacity battery than the iPhone 12 series, so the weight of the new 2H21 iPhone model is also slightly heavier than the iPhone 12. The space-saving design includes integrating the SIM card slot with the motherboard and reducing the thickness of the front optical module.
5. The new 2H21 iPhone model is the same as the iPhone 12 series, only two high-end models are equipped with rear LiDAR.
6. The report believes that the growth momentum of the iPhone in 2021 will mainly come from the increased demand for replacement of 5G devices, the increase in high-end market share due to Huawei’s ban on high-end market share, and the price cut of iPhone 11. The report predicts that iPhone shipments in 2021 will increase by 15-20% YoY (year on year) to approximately 230 million units.
2022:
1. Apple will release the new iPhone SE model in 1H22. The appearance design and most specifications are similar to the existing 4.7-inch iPhone SE, with the biggest change to support 5G and processor upgrades.
2. Among the new 2H22 iPhone models, at least the high-end models will abandon the notch design and adopt a punch-hole screen design. If the production yield is good enough, it is possible that all models support the punch hole screen design.
3. The front camera of 2H22 iPhone will be upgraded to autofocus (AF).
4. The report believes that the growth momentum of the iPhone in 2022 will mainly come from the demand for 5G replacement driven by the new high-end models and the new low-end iPhone SE.
2023:
1. If the iPhone 11 ends production in 2022, Apple will launch a new model with an approximately 6-inch LCD screen, Face ID support, and a price of less than US$600 in 1H23. Compared with iPhone 11, the biggest change of this new model is to support 5G and processor upgrades.
2. If Apple’s development goes well, the new high-end iPhone in 2H23 will adopt an under-screen fingerprint, a periscope telephoto camera, and a true full-screen design without punch hole or notch.
3. At present, Apple has not officially opened a case for folding mobile devices using flexible OLED. The report predicts that if Apple can solve the key technology and mass production problems of folding mobile devices in 2021, Apple may launch a 7.5-8-inch foldable iPhone in 2023.
The report points out that the market expects iPhone to abandon Lightning and switch to USB-C and support power touch ID buttons. However, the report points out that the current iPhone’s schedule for adopting these two new specifications is not visible.
1. The report believes that USB-C is detrimental to the profitability of the MFi business, and the waterproof specifications are lower than Lightning and MagSafe. Therefore, if the iPhone wants to abandon Lightning in the future, it may directly adopt a design without port and match MagSafe instead of USB-C port. At present, because the MagSafe ecosystem is not mature enough, it can be seen that the iPhone will continue to use the Lightning port in the future.
2. The report believes that if the iPhone uses the power Touch ID button, it will significantly improve the user experience, but the current schedule for adopting this new specification is not visible.
