Today, Ming-Chi Kuo released the latest report. The report predicts that the new 2H22 iPhone will have 4 models, namely the high-end 6.7-inch and 6.1-inch, and the lower-end 6.7-inch and 6.1-inch. The high-end 6.7-inch and 6.1-inch iPhone’s main cameras will be significantly upgraded to 48 million pixels (1/1.3″), so the ASP of the image sensor (CIS), lens, and CCM will be significantly improved. This specification upgrade will significantly improve the camera performance and beneficial to Apple‘s promotion of AR/MR.
Kuo predicts that iPhone 13 will use 12-megapixel (1/1.7″) CIS. The new 2H22 iPhone will be significantly upgraded to 48-megapixel (1/1.3″) CIS. The 48-megapixel camera of the new 2H22 iPhone can support 8k video recording (vs. iPhone 12’s 4k video recording). In the future, watching iPhone-recorded videos on an 8k TV/monitor will have a better user experience.
In terms of pixel size, the new iPhone 12, iPhone 13, and 2H22 iPhone are approximately 1.7um, 2um, and 1.25um respectively. The report believes that the 2H22 iPhone may support 48 million and 12 million (4-in-1) outputs at the same time. If it is 12 million (4-in-1) output, the CIS pixel size of the new 2H22 iPhone can be increased to about 2.5um, which is significantly larger than iPhone 12 and iPhone 13, and larger than existing Android phones, and it is close to the level of digital cameras.
Compared with the iPhone 12, Kuo estimates that the CIS, lens, and CCM ASP of the 48-megapixel camera are expected to increase significantly by approximately 90–110%, 50–70%, and 50–70%, respectively. Currently, the 48 million pixels camera suppliers for Apple are Sony (CIS), Largan (lens), and CCM (LG Innotek).
Ming-Chi Kuo also proposed several forecasts, including 5 trends.
(1) The Face ID Tx lens discards glass and uses plastic instead.
(2) 2H22 iPhone uses a 48-megapixel camera, which is conducive to the significant improvement of lens ASP.
(3) 2H22 iPhone adopts a 48-megapixel camera, which will force more Android phones to adopt large area/bottom CIS, and drive the upgrade of high-level lens specifications, ASP, and shipment.
(4) The 8P lens benefited from the improvement in yield and the decrease in cost, and shipments are expected to increase significantly starting from 2022. We expect that Samsung’s high-end mobile phones will start using 8P lenses from 2022.
(5) It is estimated that in 2023, Apple will adopt a periscope lens telephoto lens and an under-screen Face ID, and the ASP of the lens will be significantly improved.
